Tuesday July 24th Training RideThe Strange Case of the Shrinking Peloton

It was another hot afternoon, though not quite as hot as last Tuesday afternoon. Perhaps the Wheelsucker was acclimatizing; he was slightly more comfortable than the previous Tuesday afternoon. He arrived early enough for one easy lap behind the P&R, for warmup.

When the Wheelsucker returned to the P&R at 5:59, some of the usual suspects were assembled. Looking at the group and not seeing any "A" riders, the Wheelsucker was deciding to go with "Plan A¹." Then Nick Vita arrived and the Wheelsucker quickly switched to "Plan B." When Iain Banks joined in early on Rossback it was simply further weight in favor of Plan B.

There were some riders the Wheelsucker was not familiar with including a kid wearing Saxo bank kit who turned out to be quite strong, and a rider wearing a white jersey and riding a tri bike who was also on the front a lot, early.

In fact there were several riders who seemed to want to drive the pace hard early, with Nick, the Saxo kid, white tri guy and Jeff Chun all driving the pace, and some other riders feeling obliged to keep the pace up when they took a pull.

The Wheelsucker was finding himself straining at times even in the middle of the pack and – consistent with plan B – was careful to get off the front soon whenever he found himself there, and not put himself in a position where he would have trouble responding to a move.

After a generally slow rollout, the pace increased after 214. Part way to Harwood Hill Rick Paukstitus rode up to the Wheelsucker and told him that the plan was for the Wheelsucker to set up "Cancellera²" for the climb; but the Wheelsucker was determined to NOT do this. But as Harwood Hill approached, Mike Faber swung off leaving the Wheelsucker on the front. The Wheelsucker was whining pitifully at having to lead up Harwood Hill, as this was inconsistent with Plan B. But the Wheelsucker pushed hard and led all the way up, trying to keep the pace high enough to discourage attacks, but within his limits so he could respond.

But Nick was having none of it!

The Wheelsucker was still leading at the short flat section before the last bit of climb and accelerated hard on it. But Nick came flying by on the left, followed closely by the Saxo kid and Jeff. The Wheelsucker considered his options in a fraction of a second. He could dig very deep, jump as hard as he could, and try to go with them. There was a chance this would work, but the Wheelsucker had already pulled all the way up the climb and did not have a lot of confidence in that. And it would be a costly effort whether it worked or not. So the Wheelsucker gambled on this not being a serious attack and let it go. Shrewdly (and lazily) he decided to let someone else close the gap.

Steve Owens was riding his TT bike, and was next on the front when the Wheelsucker pulled off at the top. Rick was riding second wheel; the Wheelsucker took third as there was a bit of a gap to the next rider. And Steve closed the gap as the leading three eased up.

There are four climbs (and one false flat) that can hurt the Wheelsucker on the ride route, and he had survived the first climb thanks to wheelsucking behind Steve and Rick.

The Wheelsucker was on the front again when Steve pulled off after turning off the route 2 shoulder onto Polling House. The Wheelsucker pulled to the left turn to South Polling House and swung off. No one wanted to lead downhill into the stair step climb, but eventually a line formed and the Wheelsucker swung into fifth wheel, behind Jeff Chun.

Nick attacked from the bottom of the stair step climb. The Saxo kid went after him with white jersey/tri guy guy on his wheel, then Jeff, then the Wheelsucker, then the others. Nick was going hard and opened the gap. The Saxo kid got out of the saddle and was pumping the pedals like mad trying to close it.

White jersey/tri guy initially held on to the Saxo kid's wheel, but then had to stand up. It was like a parachute opened and he was yanked backwards out of line³. Then the Saxo kid pulled over to the left and eased up. Jeff kept going steady hard, with the Wheelsucker trying to stay glued to his rear wheel. Nick was still going, but seemed to be tiring (or maybe just bored) and the gap was shrinking a bit.

The Wheelsucker very briefly considered coming around Jeff and going after Nick, but decided there was no good reason to do that. Somehow he knew Nick was not going to try to go by himself this early in the ride and would ease up. And the Wheelsucker knew making the effort would be costly. So the Wheelsucker followed Jeff, and Jeff closed the gap to Nick's wheel very early on Bayard.

Then Nick pulled off, and soon after Jeff pulled off and then the Wheelsucker (still hyperventilating) took a short pull and pulled off. And as the Wheelsucker drifted back he looked over his shoulder for the back of the line, and was surprised to see it coming up so quickly BECAUSE THE PELOTON HAD SHRUNK!

The Wheelsucker tucked in at the back and the smaller group continued up Bayard. Just before the right turn onto Polling House the Wheelsucker was rotating back again and Jeff tried to let him in, in front of him. The Wheelsucker declined and told Jeff there was no way a Wheelsucker is going to take a pull and let Jeff skip his, so Jeff pulled up and the Wheelsucker pulled in behind him⁴. Down the hill, up the other side, around the sweeping right and past the golf course onto the false flat the group went. Much too soon the Wheelsucker was on the front again, when Nick pulled off.

The Wheelsucker took another short pull, being careful to have enough reserve to cover an attack and get on at the back, and once again he was surprised at how few riders were left in line; it was down to five; Jeff and the Saxo kid in white – both strong riders – were gone.

WTF, FURTHER SHRINKAGE!

Of course this meant the Wheelsucker rotated to the front that much sooner, and the next time he pulled and rotated back, the peloton has shrunk further, to just three. The ride was hard and the Wheelsucker was certainly straining at times, but the Wheelsucker did not think the ride was THAT hard to shrink the peloton to three.

Nick was driving the break, Steve Owens was taking long pulls on his TT bike, and the Wheelsucker was taking short hard pulls and hanging on most of the time.

The Wheelsucker was semi-parnaoid that Nick was going to jump hard and ride away. So the Wheelsucker tried to be continuously ready for an attack. The Wheelsucker led for the first part of the stair step, but pulled over and back so he could watch Nick. But Nick was being well behaved. Steve led up the rest of the climb and got the group going on Bayard. The riders rotated frequently, though Nick and Steve were pulling longer than the paranoid Wheelsucker. Finally Steve announced he was dropping off after a long pull on Sands. He seemed fresh and strong but later said he wanted to work on TT intervals. Incredibly the peloton had shrunk to two riders. The Wheelsucker suspected everyone else was in scattered ones and twos behind them.

And the Wheelsucker knew that Nick could attack him at any time.

But Nick behaved himself, the Wheelsucker continued his not-too-long-but-hard pulls, and the there was no chase in site. When he was on the front on a climb, the Wheelsucker tried to go hard enough that Nick was not tempted to jump, but not so hard that the Wheelsucker did not have some reserve.

And Nick did not jump him at the top of the Sands as the Wheelsucker led up the climb to the left turn onto Harwood/Patuxent River.

The Wheelsucker was on the front again for the climb out of the dip. This is the last hard climb on the route and the Wheelsucker wished he had eyes in the back of his head. But even if he did, he knew that Nick could attack and drop him even if the Wheelsucker saw the move start. But Nick did not jump past him (later in the P&R Nick said he was considering it, but decided not to when the Wheelsucker held 18 mph all the way up the climb).

There was a short pause for the 214 light.

The Wheelsucker's next idea was that Nick would drop off before the finish and turn for home, but no such luck; Nick was going the distance. The two traded pulls. The Wheelsucker was watching his average power for the ride continue to increase and was considering various tactics for beating Nick, and rejecting them one after another as impossible, or highly improbable. While the Wheelsucker was considering the matter, the finish line was approaching. Nick pulled off on the last flat and the Wheelsucker decided to lead out. He accelerated down the last dip and then gradually increased the power from the bottom of the dip, trying to continue to accelerate. The line approached far too slowly. The Wheelsucker's calves were twitching, signaling imminent cramping. The Wheelsucker was pedaling with everything he has left, which was not much. Then, not far from the finish, Nick came by on the Wheelsucker's left. The Wheelsucker had nothing left and coasted to the line, with Nick crossing comfortably ahead.

Second out of two, but a good ride for the Wheelsucker.

Wheelsucker Data (from rollout to finishline):
1:21:57
32.53 miles
1106 Kj
954 feet elevation
225 watts average/842 watts max, 268 watts normalized
139 bpm average, 159 bpm max
89 rpm average, 121 max
87 degrees F average

The Wheelsucker's first 13 minutes from rollout had him averaging only 134 watts, but then the pace picked up ...
The Wheelsucker's CP2minutes was 355 watts set climbing Harwood Hill.
All short term power maximums -- CP2seconds through CP60seconds -- were set chasing Nick and holding Jeff's wheel on the first South Polling House stairstep. CP5 and CP6 (298 watts) appear to be end a little bit of Bayard, the right turn onto Polling House and the false flats on Polling House. His CP20minutes (260 watts) and CP30minutes (261 watts) were the last twenty minutes and the last thirty minutes, respectively, of the ride.

So what caused the shrinking peloton? It turned out Jeff was sick, others were focused on racing Greenbelt on Wednesday⁵, others were affected by the heat, and some went too hard chasing Nick, and did not have enough left to stay on.

Notes:
1. The Wheelsucker's "Plan A" is for when no super strong "A" riders show up. The Wheelsucker can ride harder -- pretending to be a strong rider himself -- confident that he is not liable to being attacked and dropped. In other words he does not need to be so focused on conserving and having a big reserve.

2. This was Rick's nickname for Nick Vita.

3. The Wheelsucker does ride a TT bike from time to time and is very slow each time he stands up on the pedals. The Wheelsucker does not know how Steve Owens and Iain Banks make it up the climbs on their TT bikes.

4. The Wheelsucker later learned that Jeff was not feeling well, and now regrets his comments about Jeff being younger and stronger and trying to skip pulls.

5. Several of those on the Tuesday world championship ride were also planning to do the Wednesday Greenbelt ride. Nick Vita was second in that: http://www.route1velo.com/GreenbeltResults.asp